A Cost Analysis of Wimpy Squares
I've been running the Wimpy Squares pool for 17 years now (2024 is the 17th year) and I've been pleased with its popularity.
Although I'd "borrowed" the idea from someone else, (he charged $50 for every square) I thought I could improve on it by charging
less for the (perceived) less popular squares, while charging a premium for combinations most people wanted. This seemed to
work pretty well, however it was still difficult to move the cheaper squares, even with the discount. In 2013, I decided to do a cost
analysis of the whole pool, based on 7, (now 17) years of data. Which squares were really better and which ones were poor
investments?  I've limited my focus to final point spreads. That is to say that a final score of 54-50 is no more or less likely
than a final score of 55-51.  All of the 4-point spreads are lumped together and priced the same. While the data exists on the site
for individual combinations if you want to look that deeply, I feel this differential analysis provides some fascinating information
for anyone looking to handicap future contests.
Point Differential	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1
2007	500	1200	550	350	325	225	275	600	250	625	4900
2008	525	425	650	1225	100	825	275	150	300	425	4900
2009	175	500	125	1275	75	400	550	400	725	675	4900
2010	75	200	225	800	50	275	150	625	1650	850	4900
2011	275	175	675	500	100	150	225	600	1575	625	4900
2012	125	125	1425	375	275	325	725	700	700	125	4900
2013	475	25	175	150	1475	425	700	250	700	525	4900
2014	725	150	175	350	1300	350	450	275	500	625	4900
2015	800	350	175	725	400	1075	300	375	350	350	4900
2016	75	175	200	500	400	800	850	1500	275	125	4900
2017	300	175	100	275	1225	125	775	550	675	700	4900
2018	125	325	50	1200	625	325	700	450	725	375	4900
2019	425	325	1100	325	500	500	450	400	325	550	4900
2021	550	775	300	150	1375	125	325	725	350	225	4900
2022	325	275	275	350	850	775	575	1150	225	100	4900
2023	75	125	350	1475	125	350	150	875	575	800	4900
2024	200	200	250	425	600	1375	550	625	450	225	4900
17 YEAR VALUE	$338.24	$325.00	$400.00	$614.71	$576.47	$495.59	$472.06	$602.94	$608.82	$466.18	4900
16 YEAR VALUE	$346.88	$332.81	$409.38	$626.56	$575.00	$440.63	$467.19	$601.56	$618.75	$481.25	4900
Adj. 17 YR VALUE	$338.24	$266.18	$282.35	$379.41	$341.18	$377.94	$472.06	$485.29	$491.18	$466.18	3900
Let's look at the results.  The gray shaded cells show which differential won the grand prize $1000 for that year.
An award that large will naturally skew the results in favor of that spread. This is similar to the way that a slot
machine may pay back 95% of of the money taken in, but if you don't hit the big jackpot, you are going to receive
a substantially smaller percentage.
After 17 years, you can see that winning the grand prize raises the expected value of each differential by $5.88
The blue cells show the expected return of that number without the grand prize factored in
To put this number in perspective, you should assume each square costs $10 less.
We cannot ignore the impact of winning the grand prize. After 17 years, it is clear that the most likely spread to win the Grand Prize
has been the 6 and 7 point spreads. If there was only ONE prize being paid out for the final game, those 6 and 7 point spreads
would necessarily cost at least twice as much as any other combination. If you like winning smaller amounts more frequently,
the 1, 2, 3, and 4 point spreads pay out more. (Look at the Adj 17 yr Value line) If instead, you are interested in winning
the most money, the 6 and 7 point spreads seem to offer the best shot.
2013 Cost Was	40	44	44	50	50	52	52	56	56	56	500
2014 Cost Was	30	34	47	55	45	52	52	60	65	60	500
2015 Cost Was	35	34	47	52	50	52	52	53	65	60	500
2016 Cost Was	38	35	45	54	50	53	50	53	65	57	500
2017 Cost Was	36	34	45	55	50	54	52	55	64	55	500
2018 Cost Was	36	32	43	54	52	51	54	55	65	58	500
2019 Cost Was	35	32	40	55	53	50	56	56	65	58	500
2021 Cost Was	35	32	43	55	55	50	55	55	64	56	500
2022 Cost Was	36	34	43	54	57	48	54	55	64	55	500
2023 Cost Was	37	34	44	56	60	48	50	57	62	52	500
2024 Cost Was	35	33	44	59	58	48	50	58	62	53	500
2025 New Cost Is	33	31	42	61	61	52	50	57	62	51	500
Point Differential	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1
2024 Cost/Square	35	33	44	59	58	48	50	58	62	53	500
16 YEAR VALUE	$34.69	$33.28	$40.94	$62.66	$57.50	$44.06	$46.71	$60.16	$61.88	$48.13	4,900
17 YEAR VALUE	$33.82	$32.50	$40.00	$61.47	$57.65	$49.56	$47.21	$60.29	$60.88	$46.62	490
Profit/Loss per yr	-$0.87	-$0.78	-$0.94	-$1.19	$0.15	$5.50	$0.50	$0.13	-$1.00	-$1.51	490
The squares are not randomly priced. They are priced based on a 17 year performance, with differentials that have won the grand
prize usually being sold at a premium.
From year to year, the price of any given differential may go up or down slightly, depending on how well/poorly those combinations
have done in recent years.
What happened in 2024...
I believe after 17 years, we can begin to stabilize some of these prices based on what we've seen in the past.
The lower differentials win more often, but the middle differentials win the big money more often.
The 9 and 10 point squares can win, but are a far bigger longshot than lower differentials. I've reduced the costs of those squares
about as low as they can go. I've moved the price of the 6 and 7 point squares up - to reflect how often they've won the Jackpot Prize.
The two point differentials remain the highest cost, but just barely. The three point diffentials are have come down slightly,
but still represent a good chance to win several games in lower rounds. Unless upcoming results skew payouts far from these predictions,
these are the prices I'm expecting to lock in for the forseeable future.
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